The increase in positive Covid-19 tests is not yet cause for alarm, says the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).
While Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths also remain relatively low, this could be due to “lag time” and the next few days and weeks will reveal the true picture.
Ridhwaan Suliman, a senior researcher at the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, tweeted in his own capacity this week about a “noticeable upturn” in Covid-19 case incidence in Gauteng.
The province was averaging 777 new cases per day, which was “up 43% week on week”. He added, however, that “hospitalisations are still flat and reported deaths remain low.”
Bloomberg reported that SA’s coronavirus test positivity rate “climbed to the highest in more than three months, indicating that the number of undetected infections may be rising”.
Of those tested for the virus on Thursday, 15.8% were found to be infected, the highest proportion since January 13.
However, Adrian Puren, a professor of epidemiology and the executive director of the NICD, told TimesLIVE: “We have noted the upward trend in percent positive tested and specifically an increase in the seven-day moving average. The changes are not dramatic at this time.”
He said “multiple factors could contribute to a resurgence, including behaviour, levels of immunity and circulating variants”.
Puren said the institute was monitoring the Omicron variant and subvariants “as these may play a contributory factor to what we are observing in terms of cases”.
Closely monitoring the variants in circulation is part of keeping an eye on “early warning indicators”, as is monitoring data from wastewater surveillance.
Importantly, “there are no significant changes in hospitalisations or mortality and this may be a reflection of the levels of immune protection, but caution is urged as the hospitalisations or deaths are lagging indicators”.
The levels of exposure to infections and vaccination may provide levels of protection against severe diseases as seen in the previous resurgence, but the public is urged to “adhere to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, including mask wearing and assessing risks”.
“Critically, we urge those who are not vaccinated to vaccinate and complete their booster course.”
TimesLIVE