President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver his fourth State of the Nation address on Thursday facing more problems than he has solutions.
In this year’s address – which heralds his third year as president – there is more likely to be a focus on what he doesn’t say than what is actually contained in his speech. The address is set to go ahead at 7pm ... if there are no distractions.
Already, Ramaphosa’s spokesperson Khusela Diko has hinted that the Sona would be an account of the work done in the last year and is unlikely to contain anything groundbreaking or new.
“It is not supposed to be about something new. It is supposed to be about reporting on the achievements that have been made and this is the plan of action. And that plan of action doesn’t happen on the day of Sona. It would come from the Makgotla the government would have, that the governing party would have and will also come from engagements the president would have,” she said.
This year’s Sona will be a balancing act for Ramaphosa, with little room for manoeuvering as a result of a constrained fiscus and ailing state-owned enterprises.
This means that any expectation for an end to load-shedding would be a pipe dream as Ramaphosa is under pressure to announce a workable turnaround of Eskom.
He is expected to announce yet another plan for Eskom that may include a proposal, sponsored by trade union federation Cosatu, that suggested using R250bn of the pension funds of state workers to reduce Eskom’s debt to approximately R200bn.
During his Sona last year, which followed the national and provincial election, Ramaphosa said the utility’s financial position was a matter of grave concern.
He is also expected to make pronouncements on the over 740 other state-owned entities – but that will not include the selling or closure of SAA.
The president is expected to focus his speech around “Grow SA” – a theme aimed at catalysing investment and job creation.
Since taking over office in 2018, Ramaphosa has year-on-year presided over a depressed economy. He, too, has conceded that SA’s economy was ailing and job creation was sluggish.
But critics may argue that Ramaphosa’s efforts to grow the economy have been hampered by daily power cuts that Eskom is imposing through load-shedding.
Ramaphosa’s response to this is a new law passed that allows businesses to produce their own energy away from the grid.
The president is expected to repeat efforts made by his administration to bolster investment and grow the economy, including a boost to the tourism sector by the introduction of an e-visa and efforts to reduce red tape.
While there is a considerable public expectation for the president to announce arrests of those who have been implicated in state capture, that is unlikely.
Since he announced the appointment of the Investigative Directorate a year ago, there have been no arrests made in any state capture crimes.
A promise that perpetrators of state capture would soon be in prison in “orange overalls” is also unlikely.
He would, at best, state how much money has been recovered through asset forfeiture and legal action.
The turn-around of the NPA is still an uphill battle, with national director of public prosecutions Shamila Batohi marking her first year in office with no big arrest, let alone a conviction to her name, but with smaller victories in turning around the organisation.
Ramaphosa may deliver a speech laden with optimistic clichés despite a desperate hunger for real change in the country.
The real state of the nation will be found in what Ramaphosa does not say and that would determine how much trouble we are really in.